Jobs, politics, and a changing workforce

Texas frontline industries are still growing. In the year to September, trade, transportation and utilities added 28,600 jobs, leisure and hospitality 24,900 and construction 15,000. Unemployment held at 4.4%.

The seasonally adjusted 4.4% rate was unchanged from August. Employers shed about 11,100 jobs in the month, but over the year the state added 154,300, a 1.1% rise and 0.8 points faster than the nation. The labor force grew too, to 15,948,400. Texas employers have announced 46,528 job cuts this year, against 46,352 at this point in 2025, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Professional and business services added the most jobs over the year (+69,400), followed by trade, transportation and utilities (+28,600), the group that includes retail and warehousing, and leisure and hospitality (+24,900). Information, government and financial activities shrank.

Among the largest metro areas, unemployment was 3.7% in Austin, 4.1% in Dallas–Fort Worth, 4.3% in San Antonio and 4.6% in Houston. The highest rates were along the border, at 6.2% in Eagle Pass and 5.9% in Brownsville–Harlingen.

Census data shows who has the hardest time finding work. These are five-year averages, so they show who is most affected, not month-to-month change. The statewide rate in this data is 5.3%.

Education is the biggest divide. Among adults aged 25 to 64, unemployment runs from 6.1% for those without a high school diploma to 2.8% for bachelor’s graduates. About 3 in 4 unemployed adults in that age range don’t have a bachelor’s degree.

Young workers are hit hardest: 15.0% for 16 to 19 year olds and 9.2% for 20 to 24 year olds. People below the poverty line face 17.9% unemployment, and people with a disability 9.7%. Rates also differ by community: Black workers face 8.3%, about double the 4.2% for white non-Hispanic workers.

These are the job seekers NoProbJobs is built for: people ready to work who are short on degrees or work history.

The U.S. added far more jobs than expected in October, and unemployment slipped to 4.1%. For frontline workers the picture is mixed: more jobs in delivery, warehousing, temp work and health care, fewer in leisure and hospitality, and more people stuck in part-time hours.

Employers added 165,000 jobs, well above the average of 48,000 a month over the prior year, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000. Health care added 42,000 jobs and transportation and warehousing 25,000, most of them couriers and messengers. Temp help agencies added 18,600. Leisure and hospitality lost 13,000, and retail was little changed.

Frontline work carries about twice the unemployment of professional work: 5.5% for service jobs and 5.6% for transportation and material moving, against 2.1% for management and professional jobs.

Hourly pay for production and nonsupervisory workers rose 12 cents to $32.75, up 0.4% on the month. Their average week got shorter, at 33.8 hours, and the number of people working part time because their hours were cut or they couldn’t find full-time work rose by 339,000.

Unemployment was 13.9% for teenagers and 7.5% for 20 to 24 year olds. For adults without a high school diploma it jumped to 5.8% from 4.3% in September, while for high school graduates it fell to 3.8%. One month of this data moves around a lot, so the trend matters more than the jump. Of the 7.1 million people unemployed, 778,000 were looking for their first job.

Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

Democrat Vikki Goodwin defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. The lieutenant governor plays a central role in which bills move through the state Senate, and the Senate’s Republican majority is expected to consider new rules limiting the office’s powers.

Democrat Nathan Johnson was elected attorney general, and Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate.

Democrats are projected to hold a narrow majority in the Texas House, which Republicans have controlled since 2003. Republicans keep the state Senate, 19 to 12. The new Legislature meets in January.

A Dallas Fed report says about 1 in 5 Texas businesses are struggling to hire and keep foreign-born workers because of immigration policy changes, and Texas construction is about 38% foreign born. Builders in the Rio Grande Valley report project delays and rising costs. The White House says it does not see a structural worker shortage. Watch construction and trades hiring, especially in South Texas.

The U.S. declined to renew the USMCA in its current form at July’s review. The agreement stays in force until 2036 but now faces annual reviews, the first beginning 1 July 2027. Mexico is Texas’s largest trading partner, at $281 billion in 2024. A Dallas Fed scenario with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico estimated about 100,000 fewer Texas jobs; Gov. Greg Abbott’s office says Texas welcomes new manufacturing jobs from companies expanding in America. Manufacturing, logistics and warehouse hiring along the border is where trade decisions show up first.

Under SB 6, data centers and other large power users must help pay for their grid connections, and the grid operator can disconnect them remotely in an emergency. ERCOT is tracking about 410 gigawatts of large-load requests, roughly 87% of them data centers. The jobs are front-loaded: one Round Rock project lists 200 construction jobs and 35 to 40 permanent ones.

Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and SpaceX are on course for roughly $800 billion in capital spending this year, most of it for AI data centers, and their executives expect more in 2027. On 5 November the Nasdaq slid into a correction as investors sold off AI-linked stocks.

So far the measurable job effects are in office work. Stanford researchers using payroll data found employment of 22 to 25 year olds in the most AI-exposed occupations about 19% below trend by June 2026, with no comparable gap for experienced workers. Other studies credit part of that drop to remote work, and one study of 21,000 firms found entry-level employment grew at heavy AI adopters.

AI is writing more job posts, too. More than 750,000 employers have used Indeed’s AI job description generator on nearly 2 million jobs, and LinkedIn offers a tool that drafts a description from a job title and company name. No study yet shows whether AI-written posts ask for more experience than a job needs. It’s worth watching, because job sites also use AI to match candidates against what the post asks for.

Employers are citing AI less in layoffs. AI was named in 1,265 announced job cuts in October, its lowest month this year, and economic conditions have overtaken it as the top reason for cuts in 2026. Retail, warehouse, security and food service jobs show no clear AI effect yet.

Education is still the clearest dividing line in who finds work. AI could widen that gap if new roles keep asking for degrees. It could also narrow the skills gap as training gets cheaper and more open: the U.S. Labor Department launched a free AI course for workers in March, and since 1 July federal Pell grants can pay for short-term, non-degree training.

NoProbJobs opened in Texas on 13 October and added 6,461 jobs from 21 employers in its first three weeks.

Home Depot, Target, Allied Universal, Compass Group, TJX, Lowe’s, Chipotle and the Inspire Brands restaurants came on at launch. ABM, Aramark, Dutch Bros, Shake Shack and four airport service companies followed the next day, and T-Mobile, Whole Foods Market, Barnes & Noble and Comcast arrived on 21 October.

Every job is checked against the employer’s requirements before it’s listed. Jobs that need prior experience, a degree or a professional license stay off the board. Texas has its own checks: armed security roles that need a state commission are left off, while a commercial driver’s license or a Texas alcohol-seller certification isn’t treated as a barrier.

About 3 in 10 (29%) of the 7,024 Texas postings NoProbJobs reviewed in October didn’t require experience but still listed it as preferred. The gap was widest in facilities, sales and retail jobs, and narrowest in customer service and grocery.

New in Texas in October: ABM Industries, Alliance Ground International, Allied Universal, Aramark, Barnes & Noble, Chipotle, Comcast, Compass Group, Dutch Bros Coffee, Home Depot, Inspire Brands, Lowe’s, Menzies Aviation, PrimeFlight Aviation, Shake Shack, T-Mobile, Target, TJX, Unifi Aviation, Whole Foods Market and Worldwide Flight Services.